2011 King George Housing Market Update
In preparation for this update, I asked several, residential, full time Realtors from different real estate companies in King George to describe, in one or two words, the current state of the King George real estate market. Their answers were many and varied. Some adjectives were positive but most show the struggles that most local Realtors continue to face.
“Challenging, Difficult, Improving, Interesting, Trying, Adapting, Unpredictable, Slowly Stabilizing…”
In talking with agents, the short answer to the question is that the King George housing market is improving but it is still facing challenges. In my experience, the King George market has been consistently…inconsistent. By that, I mean that it seems like every time we get some momentum going in sales, it’s followed by equal periods where it slows down again. Kind of like a roller coaster without really big hills but unnerving hills nonetheless. I’m a fairly optimistic person though and think we’ve made it through the worst and firmly believe that 2011 will be a good year locally.
As real estate markets go, we are very blessed to be in King George County. Despite the ups and downs, as a whole we’ve fared far better than most markets including the surrounding counties. In 2009, 237 homes were sold in King George County. In 2010, 257 homes were sold for an increase of 8.4%. Another positive indicator to consider was that in 2009, the average sales price was $241,717 and in 2010 that number had increased 2.6% to $247,971. They may not be record setting numbers but they’re going in the right direction and that’s great. The average number of days a home was on the market before it sold in King George was 106 days in 2010.
King George County continues to perform relatively well compared to our neighbors to the east and west. The data below compares the average sales prices for homes sold in January of 2011.
January 2011- Average Sales Prices by County
King George County – $239,631
Westmoreland County – $139,567
Spotsylvania County – $189,860
Stafford County – $235,013
As you can see, the figures show that the average sales price in King George County is healthy and runs in line more with Stafford County. This is not to say that we don’t have our trouble spots. In 2010, several local subdivisions faced serious selling challenges. Over 50% of the homes sold in the following subdivisions were either foreclosures or short sales: Oakland Park, Chatham Village, Culpeper Commons, Monmouth Village, Scenic Ridge, Caywoods, Fox Run and Sedgewick Crossing.
There are currently 156 homes listed for sale in the Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) and of those there are 17 homes identified as foreclosures and 18 as disclosed short sales. The combined numbers represents 22% of the total homes listed for sale as distressed properties. This is where the biggest challenge lies in full recovery of our local market when nearly 1 out of 4 homes for sale is a “distressed sale”.
So what does the forecast look like for 2011? Indicators appear to support slow recovery, with average sales prices moving in a positive direction. Locally, foreclosures will undoubtedly continue in 2011 but they are expected to slow. However, Short Sales will sadly be with us for several years to come and will continue to put pressure on our “true” housing market. Distressed sales will continue to hurt new home construction as builders struggle to compete in this challenging real estate environment. On the positive side though… interest rates remain at historic low levels and housing affordability is the best it’s been in years. For investors, rentals remain in high demand with landlords commanding premium rents.
As mentioned above, the current market is challenging. Your local Realtor is a tremendous asset whether you’re buying or selling. For sellers, you need to be aware of distressed properties in your area and how they can have an effect on your home value. Realtors also work diligently with sellers through short sales in what can be a very trying and frustrating process. For buyers, it can be a confusing market as well. You read and hear about the state of the market but many times when you find the perfect house…you could end up paying full price – or more! Still, there are other times when you can make a much lower offer and get it accepted. Now more than ever, you’re local Realtor can guide you through the complexities of the market.
In closing, it’s always important to remember that all real estate markets are local and the King George market is performing well with increases in both the number of homes sold and in the average sales price. The naval base at Dahlgren is stable. Commercial activity is escalating with the addition of Wal-Mart, the new University of Mary Washington campus, CVS and so many other commercial projects that it’s hard to count. Our schools are excellent. Our real estate taxes are low. We are geographically located between Fredericksburg, VA and Southern Maryland and close to DC which has always made King George a desirable area to live. The bottom line is that if you have steady employment and plan to remain in King George for the next several years, it truly is a great time to buy a home. Selection is good, prices are low, most sellers are willing to help buyers with closing costs and again interest rates are historically low. There are many amazing opportunities that exist for you to realize the American Dream of Homeownership.
